ONS construction output fall will add pressure to housing inflation

Monthly construction output fell by 2.0% in April 2021 compared with March 2021, falling to £13,961 million, and was the first month-on-month fall since December 2020 when output fell by 2.2%.

This follows comparatively strong growth of 5.8% in March 2021. Anecdotal evidence received from survey returns suggested increased new work, delayed projects returning to sites, and a general increase in demand and confidence across the industry, as well as unusually warm weather were contributing factors to the large monthly increase in construction output in March 2021.

Figure 1 below shows overall construction output index in April 2021 dipped slightly following strong increases in February and March 2021

Despite the 2.0% fall in April 2021, the level of construction output remains 0.3% (£44 million) above its February 2020 pre-pandemic level, with a mixed profile of recovery at type of work level (Table 1).

While repair and maintenance was 7.1% (£348 million) above the February 2020 level, new work is yet to recover fully and remains 3.4% (£305 million) below it. Infrastructure is the only new work sector to have recovered above its February 2020 pre-pandemic level, at 21.2% (£386 million) above it.

Figure 2 shows all new work sectors except infrastructure had lower output in April 2021 than in February 2020 before the pandemic

The 2.0% fall in construction output in April 2021 represents a fall of £290 million in monetary terms compared with March 2021, which was the first monthly fall in output since December 2020 when it fell £291 million (2.2%).

Figure 5: A large fall in private new housing work drove the monthly decline in construction output in April 2021

New work fell by 2.9% (£261 million) in April 2021 compared with March 2021, which was the first fall since December 2020 when it fell by 3.4% (£290 million). Private new housing was the largest contributor to the monthly decline, falling by 11.1% (£352 million), which was the largest decline since April 2020 when it fell by a record 59.1% (£1,714 million).

Private housing repair and maintenance and private commercial new work also saw large month-on-month falls of 7.1% (£144 million) and 6.2% (£134 million) respectively. As shown in Figure 6, the three largest contributors to the monthly decline in April 2021 all saw strong growth in March 2021.

Share This Article