Summer Budget 2015 – Landlords Reactions

http://www.landlordzone.co.uk/landlordzone-update/white-paper-or-white-wash#rm

White Paper or White Wash?

'Interventions in the energy market by successive governments have pushed up prices, but not secured supplies' House of Lords have announced today. Well how strange another example of (possibly) well meant govt tinkering with unintended consequences achieving the exact opposite. You could substitute in 'housing' for energy and 'rent' for prices. When will these muppets learn that the free market is supreme - it will deliver the best result for the consumer in all but the most exceptional circumstances. How can it be that these over educated privileged elite are so stupid. Build more houses - increase supply, reduce immigration - limit growth in demand.....prices and rents fall. Not difficult really. NWL is right of course. The muppets aren't listening and won't until it's too late. Landlords need to plan for the 'too late scenario' as market forces will move to create opportunities for those who survive - not that I would have wished for any of this.

Cautious landlord>>>>>>>>>You are bang on there. The bigger message to anyone interfering in any market at anytime is simply check for other similar scenarios and HISTORIES..before making new policy. Those histories are factual..they occurred for a reason. They usually repeat occuring again in the new ..current situation.. unless something is hugely different in the scenarios.People like Carney..Osborne and now Hammond...think that they and there back room people know better and fail fail to weigh up the histories apropriately...therefore they get it wrong. Given the simplicity of checking histories their errors are inexcusable. The first task they should give the back room people is " find me all the similar histories and summarise what occurred"....they clearly dont do this.
In short>>
Where current view of power brokers and their " expert(s)"... seems to be versus known histories?? take the lesson of history every time and you will almost always get it right.

Michael, I'm interested in what you are saying here (and always enjoy your posts with the expanded simple maths approach) what do you think history can teach us landlords on what the outlook might be for us as a result of this meddling ? Is it as simple as higher rents from reduced supply/sustained or increased demand ? Are you predicting a significant downturn in prices for example ?

I believe they do in fact check history in some detail but then simply ignore it or bend it for political reasons and short term political gain . They wouldn't continually make the same mistakes if they genuinely took notice of the history they uncover.

They look at history so they can then work out how they will answer their critics when challenged. They know we or the press will try to find flaws. Any defence or prosecution solicitor would do the same. Politicians do likewise. They prepare their case to enable them to present their case in the best light to the court of public opinion

They believe in political terms its the right move for them and their party because it gains votes and power which they crave. Sometimes they miscalculate the public mood and that leads to their downfall. But they are prepared to take that calculated risk

They just focus on the here and now and sometimes, if they have their own political ambitions, the next 5 years in power. They look ahead a few years at best but don`t care so much about my mortgage and the next 25 year economic forecast . Why should they. They are selfish they are human.
We as investors may look 25 years down the line but they will have long gone from the political scene by then.

This is why we have continual waves of booms and busts and U turns.

Many humans are not capable of effective monitoring of their own lives let alone a whole town , country or planet. Politicians are not up to the task because they are human , We will implode in time as we destroy ourselves economically and through wars and through destroying our very environment around us

George Osborne has very little interest in the what the budget may say in 2040
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Reply to the comment left by "Cautious Landlord" at "27/02/2017 - 07:44":

Thanks for the kind words.And yep for those wondering what you allude to on my maths bit... for house prices...well as ive posted before they are fundamentally mathematically incorrect for starters anyway...im amazed actually that this has never really been..generally understood..since the maths just dont stack.The supposed increases are very significantly distorted for various reasons.Principally things which are captured in the so called "growth" but are nothing of the sort. I will not say too much here except we add to homes far, far more than we denude their features. Suffice to say when dealing with small fractions ( per annum) the additions are a massive distorter..sufficient in fact to make the endlessly touted.. per annum "growth" figs ridiculously innacurate. Most stock is "mature" a twenty year old house..as an example of the effect... may very often have had more spent on improvements and additions than its original purchase price. Play with some real world examples for yourself even newer ones..and you will find the maths are extremely distorting of so called "growth". Generally the older the house ( or street)...the more distortion occurs...and its increasingly leveraged over time.
Regarding where these same figures are headed now...well I dont believe brexit will affect prices directly hardly at all since the mass of immigrants are economic migrants who dont come here and get mortages in the short to mid term..indeed most cant. I believe the long term increase in house prices.. in truth.. over time is only somewhere around 2%.per annum generally..outside greater London and its widening commuter belt. I wouldnt like to predict too much over say the next three years.Longer term ..again id go with history and say take out the counting/maths errors (one of which is alluded to above)..and I think most likely we will continue to see house prices drifting up, over, down and around 2%..." true".. P/Annum.for most of the uk. I will say that I see no reason for the patchiness of the uk market to change..and despite the fact that im not in it..id say the south in general will continue to leave the North behind. Further than that Id say employment and PAYABLE mortgage rates will as usual be the main drivers.Again its remarkable that the media and many of our population have totally swallowed the story of unaffordability..when mortgages ..have never ever been cheaper. ..and there are dozens of five and ten percent deposit products on the market. There is far too much focus on average prices...actually the price is largely irrelevant....very few people pay it. Lending criteria can be affected of course by the" ticket" price....but those who are determined couples will generally find a way... outside of London and its belt. Have you ever noticed how thin and poorly written the "finance" section of most property books is?...and yet its the single most crucial factor..since a bad finance deal ruins the "deal" and a great finance deal can make a very average or even a dubious house purchase ( from a full investment persepctive)..work quite well over time. So no amazing predictions ...for me ..just long term repeat overall and an extension and continuance of the more recent North south divide.
I digress as usual!........Short answer....and its purely personal since..im not a financial advisor...."big london"..will still lead over time..maybe with big volatility..south will continue to stretch away from the north...and overall of the rest...mostly across a longer time span..well I guess history will repeat...and taking out the nonsense and froth...2% true per annum. Its is understanding the smallness of that figure that perhaps brings clarity to expose the crass stupidity of clause 24....one needs leverage...(finance) to make houses an interesting investment. It is the ..almost certainty of longer term gain...coupled with leverage possibilities ..via finance...that underpins investment in housing.
We are also long overdue some more creative finance solutions and products..but hey bankers is bankers!...they are not the most imaginative cohort .Creation of same...new products .. could positively effect prices.
I do have a gut that Clause 24 will be at least diminished....and if it isnt...helloo generation bedsit!..and helooooo inflated per metre pay rates...as the myth of generation rent compounds into generation bedsit.That would have to be a given as one ensures the other....and might also cause some localised and interesting price action on tiny properties..both for sale as well as rent. We shall see.

Did anyone else hear the tenant on R4 You and Yours today? The other LL, a widowed LL also presented a really good story.

I expected to see it spoken about here! It was a paradigm shift for radio 4 / BBC in that it wasn't deliberately focusing negatively on LLs at the expense of the rest of the story.

Reply to the comment left by "Rachel Hodge" at "03/03/2017 - 22:50":

It was an excellent article.

It now available to listen to on this forum here: https://www.property118.com/bbc-radio-4-interviews-landlord-tenant-interviews/95195/

Its about 7 minutes long.

Reply to the comment left by "Rachel Hodge" at "03/03/2017 - 22:50":

Hi Rachel

I have received a request to remove the name of the landlord from your last comment and have done so.

A recording of the interview can be heard via the new article linked below.

https://www.property118.com/bbc-radio-4-interviews-landlord-tenant-interviews/95195/
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Reply to the comment left by "Mark Alexander" at "04/03/2017 - 10:01":

Thank you Mark.