Bank of England stress test reveals massive financial vulnerabilities

Bank of England stress test reveals massive financial vulnerabilities

by Adam Lawrence

Guest Author

0:02 AM, 3rd July 2024, About 4 days ago 6

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This week I also analyse key reports from the Bank of England and Zoopla.

Bank of England Stress Test:

  • Supply Side Shock:
    • Disruptions that cause Bank Rate to rise to 9% for a year are modelled.
  • Demand Shock:
    • A severe recession that causes Bank Rate drop to 0.1% for two years is modelled.
    • Both scenarios imagine a 5% drop in UK GDP, 8.5% unemployment, and a 28% fall in house prices.

These scenarios, though highly unlikely, highlight the realistic worst case potential vulnerabilities in the financial system. Preparing for such extremes ensures resilience and readiness to mitigate risks.

Quantitative Tightening:

  • The Bank may reconsider selling bonds to the secondary market, potentially reducing taxpayer losses. I hope so. It is a poor policy on various levels.

This approach could stabilise the bond market and prevent unnecessary losses, reflecting a more prudent fiscal strategy, and saving the taxpayer money!

Bank Financial Stability Report:

  • Key Points:
    • Markets are currently pricing in a “benign central case” outlook.
    • Risks are crystallising in the US real estate market, with high growth and high mortgage rates.
    • French elections have impacted market stability.

The report underscores the need for vigilance in monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impacts on financial stability.

Zoopla House Price Index:

  • House prices remained flat over the past 12 months, with a predicted 1.5% rise by year-end, according to Zoopla
  • The report suggests UK house prices are currently 8% overvalued
  • Activity is expected to slow as we approach the summer period

Zoopla’s data highlights regional variations in the property market, with Southern England underperforming compared to the rest of the UK. The anticipated slowdown in summer aligns with seasonal trends.

Affordability Measures:

  • Zoopla’s affordability measures are questionable and opaque, prompting a need for better metrics.

Understanding affordability is crucial for assessing market health and ensuring sustainable growth. Improved metrics could provide clearer insights into housing market dynamics.

Summary: The combination of stress tests, financial stability insights, and housing market reports offers a comprehensive view of the current economic landscape. Staying informed on these metrics helps navigate the complexities of the property market and broader economy.

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Comments

JB

10:20 AM, 3rd July 2024, About 3 days ago

I've got one property on the market for which I've been offered 10% below asking price.
The agent tells me surveyors are now down valuing agreed prices, so it looks like the offer price won't even be achieved

northern landlord

12:23 PM, 3rd July 2024, About 3 days ago

House prices are a can of worms. There is no formula to calculate prices. The price is basically what the seller can get away with balanced against what a buyer is willing to pay. It is not unusual for agents to overprice to draw the seller in and then suggest a reduction when no offers come in. Possibly the agent is colluding with a friend to get your house for less than market value. In the end you have to make a judgement call. Even an empty house costs money. Can you afford to wait or do you need the money urgently?. Will you look back in the future and wish you had taken the 90% offer on the table? Who knows?

Cider Drinker

13:35 PM, 3rd July 2024, About 3 days ago

A new government with the likes of Rayner and Abbott. What could possibly go wrong?

I think rates at 9% is more likely than 0.1%.

Once the unions and the welfare claimants make their demands and anyone with serious wealth moves abroad, the U.K. is doomed.

We should all move to Rwanda. In ten years, those left in the U.K. will be begging to join us.

JB

13:53 PM, 3rd July 2024, About 3 days ago

Reply to the comment left by northern landlord at 03/07/2024 - 12:23
I was selling a property a few years ago and agreed a happy price with the buyer but the deal was scuppered because he couldn't get a mortgage for the full amount - it was down valued. This happened twice with different buyers - there were plenty of buyers around happy to pay a decent price but the surveyors dictated the market.

SCP

13:08 PM, 4th July 2024, About 2 days ago

Reply to the comment left by JB at 03/07/2024 - 13:53
Hi
Market price is determined by a willing seller and a willing buyer.
Mortgage valuation is what the lender is willing to lend on the security of the property.
The buyer should not have been surprised when the two valuations were different.

JB

13:11 PM, 4th July 2024, About 2 days ago

Reply to the comment left by SCP at 04/07/2024 - 13:08
The market is often determined by what the buyer can borrow

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