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Property118.com
Monday 2nd December 2013
Total Number of Property118
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59
Bio
Propenomix Founder.....macroeconomic and UK property market obsessive......
700+ deals in the past 12 years, held on to most, usually in JV structures - single family units, vanilla BTL, some HMO, social, STR/SA - conversions and one whole out of the ground build too!
Shooting straight always - from the hip - no sugar coating and (I try) no bias - just the truth as I see it.
May 2024 - Never been as bullish for the 5-year future of the property market from an investor's perspective - never been so bearish from a tenant's perspective. To be updated!
10:09 AM, 6th September 2024, About 4 months ago
Reply to the comment left by Lee at 06/09/2024 - 09:52
Don't disagree with your concerns about meddling in the market but it is rife as it is, and I'd expect takeup to be 0.25% if that per year to be honest.
Thin end of the wedge argument makes sense - but I also think this is still Europe, not the USA - a great country if you have loads of money, health and earning potential, otherwise - a million reasons why the overall outcomes are not great for the majority, which is a dangerous and unstable situation the worse it gets. It's always fine until a tipping point......the concept of the enlightened self-interest.
I don't think we are approaching anything like the Soviet Union here - especially given the amount of redistributive/socialist policies that already exist in the UK, if a tenant buys a house at full market value and the landlord gets a tax break. Like anything there could be a handful of disproportionate negative outcomes, but I'd be surprised if it was more than that - if it was framed well.... Read More
14:30 PM, 5th September 2024, About 4 months ago
Reply to the comment left by Gromit at 05/09/2024 - 13:08
True BUT what about the actual voting that goes on - it might be closer than you think at 1.95 properties per landlord on average or whatever it is. 40% didn't vote last time out....
2 - is absolutely the institutional view, totally... Read More
13:03 PM, 5th September 2024, About 4 months ago
Reply to the comment left by david porter at 05/09/2024 - 12:52
Again I very much agree with those sentiments David!... Read More
12:50 PM, 5th September 2024, About 4 months ago
Reply to the comment left by david porter at 05/09/2024 - 12:49
Believe me David I have detailed experience of that... Read More
11:53 AM, 5th September 2024, About 4 months ago
Reply to the comment left by Lee at 05/09/2024 - 09:50
There's sensible ways to approach that though Lee. Cider Drinker's idea is not bad, you could also throw in "no CGT" as a sweetener in these situations to make up for the sale of the asset. Then you end up in a situation where everyone (apparently) WANTS the tenant to buy - in situations where no-one wants to sell the home because they might move back in, the unintended consequence means airbnb etc. only, or simply empty home.....but it would all be a balance.
I've sold a few to tenants over the years, always been delighted to do so, not necessarily "offers I couldn't refuse" but there are bonuses e.g. no agency fees, it was in the day when there used to be a CGT allowance, etc.... Read More
11:51 AM, 5th September 2024, About 4 months ago
Reply to the comment left by Gromit at 05/09/2024 - 10:29
That genuinely seems their direction of travel - started with Osborne, went through another 63 tory PMs, and is still there with RR/KS... Read More
11:50 AM, 5th September 2024, About 4 months ago
Reply to the comment left by david porter at 05/09/2024 - 11:35
... Read More
10:14 AM, 5th September 2024, About 4 months ago
Reply to the comment left by Cider Drinker at 04/09/2024 - 18:29
Fair commentary. I'd think 4 months is "reasonable" notice unless there are extenuating circumstances. Having seen a whole number of LLs in distress over the years the exra 2 months might put them under untenable pressure, which is why that needs to be thought about quite carefully.
Interesting thoughts on EPC, makes economic sense as more costs to living there that are not rents, because of energy bills.
Improvement of property - I think you can justify it as part of levelling up, as there will be a hugely disproportionate effect otherwise. Or, use your type of suggestion to say that improvements are capped to x% of the property value or y% of the rent - that would go some way towards not causing a major geographical shift/issue. £10k in Seaton and £10k in Mayfair as a cap (or any such arbitrary cap) is just classic Westminster legislation.
Taxation - couldn't agree with you more. The central point needs to be that raising the cost of delivery raises the cost to the tenant and primarily spends the tenants' money, not the landlords.... Read More
16:10 PM, 4th September 2024, About 4 months ago
Let's hope this gets some well-deserved traction Marcus!... Read More
19:11 PM, 29th June 2024, About 6 months ago
Reply to the comment left by JB at 29/06/2024 - 12:20
I'll keep it warm - these don't look in any way radical, if anything they aren't going to do much at all apart from the odd ideological misstep like VAT on private school fees - they are too scared to and have forgotten what it is like to govern.
"Only three of the current 31 members of the shadow cabinet have had any ministerial experience at cabinet level in government"
Rayner is already getting watered down.
If Starmer gets toppled all bets are off.....
I don't think they will do much at all tbh. There's no room left to do much apart from hope that this economy that finally looks to be growing at 1.5% a year or more grows us out of trouble.... Read More
9:01 AM, 29th June 2024, About 6 months ago
Reply to the comment left by JB at 27/06/2024 - 18:58
Yep, a reason.
Not an excuse.
I think splitting hairs is key as it shows true colours.
Normally he is much cleverer than that - e.g.
Sunak "doesn't understand our culture".
Apologise for that if you prefer, but that's nothing to do with Sunak's privilege, the choice of language makes it clear that it is OUR culture and our own Prime Minister isn't part of it (which is a ridiculous statement) and then you work out for yourself WHY he isn't part of OUR culture.
But definitionally - he is, and for a few more days - he's the leader of it!
I think this is highly important, because currently the 1920s are repeating themselves - and if Labour fail to deliver, we will either get a cleaned-up, workable, Reform party for a 2029 election (if we go full term), or we will be in the same boat that France are currently in.
We can have a look and see how France will do if Macron has shot the pooch here, because a lot of investment money will be pulling out of France if this goes what's perceived to be "badly". Like Brexit - this is just a self-fulfilling prophecy, regardless of whether it is a "good idea" or not.... Read More
8:55 AM, 29th June 2024, About 6 months ago
Reply to the comment left by SCP at 28/06/2024 - 14:00
For business accounts in the UK it is a simple way of the banks potentially monetizing some transactions - some charge, some don't - depends on the layer of protection in the account....
For personal accounts, I don't know any that don't enact FPs these days - they say within 2 hours but in reality, within seconds the money is there... Read More
17:24 PM, 27th June 2024, About 6 months ago
Reply to the comment left by Rob Thomas at 27/06/2024 - 17:16
Great comment Rob thank you - this was a summary of a longer piece I wrote where i laid out the ECB position (margin) for example, and extended that margin to a "fairer"/"more incentive based" structure.
Please note I'm not advocating for the position of no interest - that's the Reform position, remember.
This is the danger of summarising much longer articles!
GB is suggesting something that looks like the ECB current solution as I understood it.
My third way is something inbetween.......there is the benefit to the risk weighting of what's kept in the central bank as well which provides a reason for it to be there. So there is already a framework (effectively) for mandatory deposits at the central bank?
The bigger bigger point is that the plus point of QT is nowhere near as large as the downside of selling into the open market - that is openly bad in my view, has kept yields higher and will blow £50-£60bn of treasury (read taxpayer) money by the time it is all done. That's a crying shame.... Read More
17:19 PM, 27th June 2024, About 6 months ago
Reply to the comment left by JB at 27/06/2024 - 15:28
Not really.
Farage said "Reason" to invade. Putin had "reason" to invade.
He SHOULD have said "excuse" to invade. Because that would me a much fairer framing of the situation.
Those were his words - I don't worry about MSM, but I go to the horse's mouth. You need to say what you mean, but ensure that if you do get a reputation for saying what you mean, then say what you mean. Don't say reason if you mean excuse. etc.
Reason = sympathy.
If you will defend him at all costs, and say he can do no wrong, then that is your position and you are welcome to it - I will stick to the facts!
Farage simply imported Trump's position and didn't think about it too hard, but ultimately that is a position that sits badly with 98% of the public (Russia sympathy) as polled.... Read More
15:19 PM, 27th June 2024, About 6 months ago
Reply to the comment left by JB at 27/06/2024 - 15:18
Labour are lying about it and the "reason" - read excuse - for the hikes will come in time.
Cons can't afford their plans.
Reform aren't alone but they are the furthest out, but it isn't stopping the wind in their sails. Putin sympathy, however, is a bad look.
Farage isn't Trump (yet).... Read More
14:52 PM, 27th June 2024, About 6 months ago
Stat overload - stripped back version of my longer article, hope it was of some interest!... Read More
14:48 PM, 27th June 2024, About 6 months ago
£10bn a year to be saved, or more - no-one interested.
Interested to know why these articles miss the mark - too technical, too dry, not written well enough, don't explain the issue?... Read More
14:45 PM, 27th June 2024, About 6 months ago
Reply to the comment left by JB at 26/06/2024 - 10:12
In theory I'm in support
In practice it is incredibly expensive and they are making up numbers as they go along, unfortunately.... Read More
9:49 AM, 26th June 2024, About 6 months ago
Reply to the comment left by Cider Drinker at 24/06/2024 - 17:01
Don't directly disagree - but that's a very small fraction of the net migration numbers of the past couple of years.
The unspoken part is that too much of the public services are built on migrant labour, the Tories put in a scheme to make their pals some money to get around minimum wages by important labour, and Covid rocked the world and has changed the willingness of people in the UK to work.
All of those need addressing.... Read More
15:28 PM, 24th June 2024, About 6 months ago
Reply to the comment left by JB at 24/06/2024 - 15:25
I'm just not willing to believe that "it's different this time" and "these are the ones telling the truth", I'm afraid - it's politics!... Read More