Adam Lawrence

I'll keep it warm - these don't look in any way radical, if anything they aren't going to do much at all apart from the odd ideological misstep like VAT on private school fees - they are too scared to and have forgotten what it is like to govern.

"Only three of the current 31 members of the shadow cabinet have had any ministerial experience at cabinet level in government"

Rayner is already getting watered down.

If Starmer gets toppled all bets are off.....

I don't think they will do much at all tbh. There's no room left to do much apart from hope that this economy that finally looks to be growing at 1.5% a year or more grows us out of trouble.... Read More

Yep, a reason.

Not an excuse.

I think splitting hairs is key as it shows true colours.

Normally he is much cleverer than that - e.g.

Sunak "doesn't understand our culture".

Apologise for that if you prefer, but that's nothing to do with Sunak's privilege, the choice of language makes it clear that it is OUR culture and our own Prime Minister isn't part of it (which is a ridiculous statement) and then you work out for yourself WHY he isn't part of OUR culture.

But definitionally - he is, and for a few more days - he's the leader of it!

I think this is highly important, because currently the 1920s are repeating themselves - and if Labour fail to deliver, we will either get a cleaned-up, workable, Reform party for a 2029 election (if we go full term), or we will be in the same boat that France are currently in.

We can have a look and see how France will do if Macron has shot the pooch here, because a lot of investment money will be pulling out of France if this goes what's perceived to be "badly". Like Brexit - this is just a self-fulfilling prophecy, regardless of whether it is a "good idea" or not.... Read More

For business accounts in the UK it is a simple way of the banks potentially monetizing some transactions - some charge, some don't - depends on the layer of protection in the account....

For personal accounts, I don't know any that don't enact FPs these days - they say within 2 hours but in reality, within seconds the money is there... Read More

Great comment Rob thank you - this was a summary of a longer piece I wrote where i laid out the ECB position (margin) for example, and extended that margin to a "fairer"/"more incentive based" structure.

Please note I'm not advocating for the position of no interest - that's the Reform position, remember.

This is the danger of summarising much longer articles!

GB is suggesting something that looks like the ECB current solution as I understood it.

My third way is something inbetween.......there is the benefit to the risk weighting of what's kept in the central bank as well which provides a reason for it to be there. So there is already a framework (effectively) for mandatory deposits at the central bank?

The bigger bigger point is that the plus point of QT is nowhere near as large as the downside of selling into the open market - that is openly bad in my view, has kept yields higher and will blow £50-£60bn of treasury (read taxpayer) money by the time it is all done. That's a crying shame.... Read More

Not really.

Farage said "Reason" to invade. Putin had "reason" to invade.

He SHOULD have said "excuse" to invade. Because that would me a much fairer framing of the situation.

Those were his words - I don't worry about MSM, but I go to the horse's mouth. You need to say what you mean, but ensure that if you do get a reputation for saying what you mean, then say what you mean. Don't say reason if you mean excuse. etc.

Reason = sympathy.

If you will defend him at all costs, and say he can do no wrong, then that is your position and you are welcome to it - I will stick to the facts!

Farage simply imported Trump's position and didn't think about it too hard, but ultimately that is a position that sits badly with 98% of the public (Russia sympathy) as polled.... Read More

Labour are lying about it and the "reason" - read excuse - for the hikes will come in time.

Cons can't afford their plans.

Reform aren't alone but they are the furthest out, but it isn't stopping the wind in their sails. Putin sympathy, however, is a bad look.

Farage isn't Trump (yet).... Read More

Stat overload - stripped back version of my longer article, hope it was of some interest!... Read More

£10bn a year to be saved, or more - no-one interested.

Interested to know why these articles miss the mark - too technical, too dry, not written well enough, don't explain the issue?... Read More

In theory I'm in support

In practice it is incredibly expensive and they are making up numbers as they go along, unfortunately.... Read More

Don't directly disagree - but that's a very small fraction of the net migration numbers of the past couple of years.

The unspoken part is that too much of the public services are built on migrant labour, the Tories put in a scheme to make their pals some money to get around minimum wages by important labour, and Covid rocked the world and has changed the willingness of people in the UK to work.

All of those need addressing.... Read More

I'm just not willing to believe that "it's different this time" and "these are the ones telling the truth", I'm afraid - it's politics!... Read More

My point is more around the makeup than the number. What's the right ratio of

Children
Students
Working age adults
Working age non-working adults
Retirement age adults

And all the demographics are slowly getting worse.

Even Reform are already watered down to "net zero non-essential immigration"

Getting obsessed with "the number" is just arbitrary. We could have 250k per year necessary and needed net migration, we could have 20k per year of completely the wrong sort of net migration........... Read More

Let's face it even the big boys and girls can't get 100% trustworthy candidates, but Reform's PR spin on this bit is pretty impressive.

"Not my fault" if the candidates are what they are......

But with the wind behind you, you can get away with murder, let's face it.... Read More

Hopefully not - the "intentionally homeless" piece causes a change in the way local authorities operate of course, but now they know budget black holes are plugged by central government, at this time they can just threaten to go bankrupt.......... Read More

Children are, instead, born at the lower or upper end of the income deciles - and the middle is getting a little hollowed out.

It changes more by geography than anything else, then by income, but the real unspoken issue is class, of course.... Read More

No, that won't be the population - but the incoming problem is much larger when you look at the demographics and accept the facts

Too many old people not working and claiming pensions and needing care

Not enough of working age

Not enough of school age soon to become of working age!

So if you don't make them, you import them, or you accept no growth/3 lost decades like Japan have had.

This is not a pro or anti immigration argument - simply a summary of the facts - pensions are unaffordable just as the NHS is unaffordable and both need reform, OR we need to pay taxes like they do in a lot of the rest of Western Europe.... Read More

Immigration and housing

vs

Immigration and jobs

vs

Immigration and integration/culture

Three different debates, but of the three, I think that housing has the largest impact/overlap

I respect the fact that Reform speak about reform (no kidding) of the NHS when everyone else is a bit scared to do so - I'm not sure their plan is the right one, mind, but just saying the words "it needs reform" is a step in the right direction.... Read More

Thank you - appreciated!... Read More

If you read it carefully, those were not my words, and I was clear I didn't agree with the whole statement.

The situation is better framed as:

Some of the Reform candidates ARE horrid racists - that much is incontrovertible. Certainly not the majority.

OR

The racists will likely vote for Reform, but that doesn't make Reform the racists.

The system wants those anywhere near the middle to struggle to stand with Reform - it's the best hope that they've got (not necessarily for now but for next time around).

Reform aren't going away.... Read More

To raise these horrible frozen thresholds will cost a lot - and in many ways they are telling the truth, although they are saying it slightly differently - only growth can pay for that......

Wealth taxes are implemented in some countries and raise very little - it won't even be a billion. Tax has to be paid by the masses to work when you have a big state - awkward reality - and we currently have a massive one and very few looking to shrink it.... Read More